Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 OK-03 House election. The source defines that margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Resolution depends on "the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1], so a bracket is settled by certified results, not by early reporting.

The contract wording has several rules that affect how a bracket resolves. A value that "falls exactly between two brackets" resolves "to the higher margin bracket" [1]. The source also states that "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1]. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1].

The source gives the election date as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00 UTC [1]. That listed time is a close time for the contract, not a confirmed date for the count or certification.

Reading the snapshot

The saved data was observed at 2026-10-17T15:00:06 UTC and retrieved at 16:03:28 UTC [1]. These are prices from that observation window, not live quotes. The sample covers 10 of 10 saved markets from one Polymarket event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Since only one platform is present, no cross-platform comparison is made here.

The ten Yes prices range from 0.0045 for the "0% to 10%" bracket to 0.295 for the "35% to 40%" bracket. The sample is ordered by Yes price, not by margin size, so the list order should not be read as a ranking of likelihood across the margin range. The listed Yes prices sum to about 1.0075. Because these are snapshot prices rather than executable quotes, that total should not be treated as a verified probability distribution.

The separate "Democratic Party candidate" contract shows a Yes price of 0.005 in this snapshot. It is a different question from the margin brackets and is not directly comparable to them.

What remains uncertain

The source does not explain why any price moved, how many traders hold each position, or how much liquidity sits behind these prices. The reported volume figure, which the source does not show here, would not establish either of those points.

Results may also be affected by candidate replacement. The source says that if a named candidate is replaced before election day, "the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party" [1]. The contract is not settled until certification, so these snapshot prices may change before then.

References

1. Polymarket: OK-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.