OK-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.7K
1
8
OK-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.7K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 15-20% at 32%.
Polymarket
- Republican 15-20%32%
- Republican 10-15%29.5%
- Republican 20-25%16.5%
- Republican 5-10%12%
- Republican 25-30%5.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.7K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 OK-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event's contracts resolve on the margin of victory in the 2026 OK-01 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The rules說明 that the party labels "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to the nominees of those parties, and that independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].
The wording matters for comparison. Several contracts ask whether the Republican candidate wins by a given bracket, while a separate contract asks only whether the Democratic candidate wins [1]. Bracket boundaries also carry rules: if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties follow a separate tiebreak rule based on ballot-listed last names [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules state that the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1], but that is contract text, not a confirmed event date in this evidence. Resolution follows the official certified count, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:31:52.491Z. It shows eight Polymarket contracts, all active, with the coverage flagged as complete for this saved event (8 of 8 markets, not a partial sample) [1]. Yes prices in this snapshot run from 0.014 for a Republican win by 0% to 5% to 0.34 for a Republican win by 15% to 20% [1]. The Democratic win contract is priced at 0.078 [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the eight contracts sum to about 1.095, which shows they do not form a clean probability distribution at this observation time. Each contract should be read on its own wording, and prices from different platforms or events should not be averaged or compared as if they describe identical outcomes. The sample also reports no volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
This evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not report any news or current developments. The provider notes that the saved markets do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. The snapshot therefore cannot show how the full outcome space is priced, and no omitted outcome should be assumed to have a lower price. Because the observation is from October 16, 2026, later prices may differ, and the evidence does not show current prices.
References
- Polymarket: OK-01 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a prediction market contract group titled "OK-01 House Election Margin of Victory" on Polymarket. The contracts concern the 2026 election for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, which the provider's rules describe as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Wikipedia's article on the 2026 House elections in Oklahoma likewise states that the elections will be held on that date, one for each of the state's five congressional districts [2]. The contract rules define the underlying measure precisely. The "margin of victory" is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a top-two candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure is an absolute difference, it does not indicate which party finished first. Which party's candidate wins is handled by separate contracts in the same group, and the rules state that candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, while independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. The group contains bracketed margin contracts, such as whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a margin in a stated range, along with a contract on whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. Brackets are narrow ranges of percentage points, and the rules say that a reported value falling exactly on the boundary between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Historical Context
Wikipedia reports that the primary elections for the 2026 Oklahoma House races took place on June 16, 2026, and that in races where no candidate received more than 50 percent, runoff elections would have taken place on August 25, 2026 [2]. Those dates are historical background from the article and do not confirm the final field of candidates for the November general election. The contract rules anticipate this possibility by stating that if a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. For comparison, Wikipedia's article on the 2024 presidential election in Oklahoma describes a separate contest held on November 5, 2024, in which the state's seven electoral votes were allocated by popular vote [3]. That election does not determine any outcome in the 2026 OK-01 contracts.
Why It Matters
The contracts measure how decisively the top two candidates separate in the OK-01 House election, using the official share of valid votes rather than raw vote totals [1]. A contract on a margin bracket therefore depends on the gap between first and second place, not simply on which party wins. The Democratic win contract, by contrast, depends on which party's nominee finishes first [1]. The rules also set out how the contracts resolve. The primary resolution source is the official result of the 2026 OK-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority that certifies results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Ties are handled by specific rules that depend on whether the tied candidates are listed in the contract, and the rules direct resolution to the lowest margin bracket for the relevant candidate in certain cases [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count toward either party contract?
No. The contract rules state that independent candidates will not represent options for either party, while Democratic and Republican Party nominees represent the Democrat and Republican options [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract will be updated, and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
When would the contract resolve to Other?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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