Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Total Volume

$18.56K

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California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Vol

$18.56K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.56K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.56K

100%

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8 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?	Kalshi	69%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?	Kalshi	56%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?	Kalshi	41%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?	Kalshi	35%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?	Kalshi	31%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 10%?	Kalshi	27%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 19%?	Kalshi	18%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 22%?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$18.56K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or the option that finishes first if No loses. If No wins, the margin will be positive; if No loses, the margin will be negative; if No ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclus

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or the option that finishes first if No loses. If No wins, the margin will be positive; if No loses, the margin will be negative; if No ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclus

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 22%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 19%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Volume$18.56K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or th

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or th

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 13%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or t

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or th

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 16%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or t

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California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

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Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Markets (8)

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?

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Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

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California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 1%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 4%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 13%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 7%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election be at least 16%?

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