GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?

Name: Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$252.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?

Vol

$252.68K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.11K

Kalshi

markets · $230.57K

Price Spread

3.5%avg

max 3.5%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $252.68K

91%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?ARB	56%	60%	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

Top Probability

$252.68K

Volume

Markets

3.5%

Price Gap

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect election

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect election

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $252.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.7K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 144.72)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (1 mkts) vs Kalshi (1 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $22.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $230.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.5% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?

Volume$230.57K

Markets1

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, re

Volume$22.11K

Markets1

1 of 1

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Arbitrage Opportunity: 3.5% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average58.3%

Polymarket

56.5%

Kalshi+3.5%

60.0%

Difference:3.5% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?

If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one

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Next Market Closes

27d 19h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

56¢

Polymarket

60¢

Kalshi

4¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/f0219H" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Democrats sweep the &quot;core four&quot; Senate races?"></iframe>

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Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?