AL-04 House Election Winner
PM $38.9K
1
2
AL-04 House Election Winner
PM $38.9K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Robert Aderholt (R) at 97.3%.
Polymarket
- Robert Aderholt (R)97.3%
- Amanda Pusczek (D)<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $38.9K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The contract text states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1]. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, and if there is ambiguity, it uses official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T16:53:19.391Z [1]. These are different times. The observation time is when the provider data was recorded, and the retrieval time is when this record was pulled. Neither is a live quote. The Republican Party contract shows Yes at 0.973 and No at 0.027 [1]. The separate Democratic Party contract shows Yes at 0.0005 and No at 0.9995 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The two contracts ask different questions, so they should be read separately rather than merged. Both list an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z and an active status [1]. The listed end time is a provider field and does not by itself determine the outcome, which depends on the resolution rules above.
The coverage record lists two markets from one Polymarket event, both included, with partialSample set to false [1]. This means the saved event is fully represented. The provider also notes that including all saved markets does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. The markets were ordered by Yes price and then volume. Volume reflects trading activity, not liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no news, trader counts, or forecasting track record. It does not show whether the election has been called or what the result is. Only one provider and one event are represented, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. These prices reflect the observation time and may have changed since.
References
- Polymarket: AL-04 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for AL-04 in the 2026 midterm elections. The provider's rules say the market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat, and they give November 3, 2026 as the date of the midterm elections [1]. The rules define how a party is determined. A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the Democratic or Republican party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is treated as a member of the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. Resolution depends on the outcome as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the rules say the market will resolve solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That listed end time is a provider setting and should not be read as the moment the winner is called or the market resolves. Resolution is tied to when the House elections are conclusively called, as described in the rules [1]. The saved event contains two markets, one asking whether the Republican Party will win the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party will win it. Each market has Yes and No outcome labels [1]. The saved prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the party outcome for one U.S. House seat, AL-04, in the 2026 midterm elections, as defined by the provider's rules [1]. Because the rules use a consensus of credible reporting with an official federal fallback, the resolution standard is about the party result of the election itself, not about a candidate's personal forecast or a poll [1]. The provider's party rules also settle how candidates without a major-party label are classified, which affects how an independent or similarly labeled candidate would be counted [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event does this contract depend on?
It depends on the winner of the AL-04 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, which the rules place on November 3, 2026 [1].
How is a candidate's party determined?
The rules use the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a major party when the House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a major-party ballot label is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].
What happens if reporting is unclear?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
