GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?

Name: When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
End: 2026-10-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$197.21K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?

Vol

$197.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $197.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $197.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	Poly	33%
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$197.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is swo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 1, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is swo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An individual announced as an acting or i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $76.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 12, 2026): Vol $37.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $38.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics