2026 is the hottest year ever? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

2026 is the hottest year ever?

Total Volume

$663.00

Events

Markets

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2026 is the hottest year ever?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $663.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $663.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Kalshi	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

17%

Top Probability

$663.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 is the hottest year ever?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expir"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $663
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.11M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $663
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

17¢

Kalshi

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2026 is the hottest year ever?

2026 is the hottest year ever?

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Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)