Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

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$205.00

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Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

Vol

$205.00

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10 markets tracked

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	91%
Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	83%
Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	66%
Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	48%
Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	31%
Will Republicans receive above 36% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	24%
Will Republicans receive above 38% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	18%
Will Republicans receive above 40% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	12%
Will Republicans receive above 42% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	8%
Will Republicans receive above 44% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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91%

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$205.00

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About This Event

On Nov 6, 2026 If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican, or Rep., column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race or gender, in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 6, 2026

If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican, or Rep., column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race or gender, in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 26%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $205
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans receive above 44% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans receive above 42% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans receive above 40% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans receive above 38% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republicans receive above 36% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

Volume$205.00

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 26%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 28%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 32%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 34%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate 18-29 age row, not a row further divided by race

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/f5tugC" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?"></iframe>

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Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

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Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

Markets (10)

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29?

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the vote among voters aged 18-29 in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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