IL-05 House Election Winner
PM $35.5K
1
2
IL-05 House Election Winner
PM $35.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Mike Quigley (D) at 96.5%.
Polymarket
- Mike Quigley (D)96.5%
- Tommy Hanson (R)2.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $35.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "IL-05 House Election Winner" is tied to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, which the source says will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules say a candidate's party is determined by their "ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party" at the time the House elections are conclusively called, and that a candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation will be assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
Resolution relies on "a consensus of credible reporting," with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback if there is ambiguity [1]. The listed end time is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is a listed close time, not a record of when the outcome was determined or resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 21:00:05 UTC on October 15, 2026, and retrieved at 21:12:42 UTC the same day. Both markets in the event are shown as active in that snapshot. The two contracts are:
- "Will the Democratic Party win the IL-05 House seat?" with a Yes price of 0.97 and a No price of 0.03.
- "Will the Republican Party win the IL-05 House seat?" with a Yes price of 0.0215 and a No price of 0.9785.
These are observed prices at one moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Volume is not included in this interpretation and does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
The coverage data indicates that both markets saved for this event are included, with no partial sample. The sample warning, however, states that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why these prices are where they are, and it contains no information on recent news, campaign developments, or trader sentiment. It also does not show how the prices have changed over time or how similar forecasts have performed historically.
The two Yes prices do not sum to exactly 1 in this snapshot, which is common for quoted prices and should not be treated as an opportunity without checking executable terms. Readers should also confirm the resolution wording, the listed close time, and the official results when they become available, since the snapshot only describes conditions at the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: IL-05 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket event "IL-05 House Election Winner," which asks which political party will win the U.S. House seat for Illinois's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The contract states that it will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat [1]. The source gives November 3, 2026, as the date of the midterm elections [1]. The contract explains how the winning party is determined. A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is treated as belonging to whichever party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with, measured at the same point in time [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That timestamp is the provider's listed end time for the market. It is not an announced date for when results will be known, and it should not be read as a confirmed result or an official call. The market's resolution method is also set out in the rules. It resolves based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting [1]. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: whether the Democratic or Republican party will hold the Illinois 5th District U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Because it is tied to party rather than to a named candidate, the contract's wording on party affiliation and caucus intent determines how independent or unaffiliated winners would be classified [1]. Reading the rules closely matters because the question is about the party outcome as defined in the contract, not about every feature of the race.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the IL-05 House Election Winner contract resolve on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
How is a candidate's party determined?
The contract uses the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation at the time the House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a Democratic or Republican ballot-listed affiliation is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
What happens if the reporting is ambiguous?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Does the listed end time mean results will be announced then?
No. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z is a provider setting for the market [1]. The source gives November 3, 2026, as the election date, and the contract resolves based on how the election is called under its rules [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
