Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

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$13.15K

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Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

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Kalshi

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	37%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	28%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	27%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	18%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	17%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	16%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If X provides Y written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire serv

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If X provides Y written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire serv

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.

Only reporting from any "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $572
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $664
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $749
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

Volume$13.15K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHISports

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to with

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHISports

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to with

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHISports

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral ag

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This event is not mutually exclusive and multi

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any

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Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

Markets (8)

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?

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Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?

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