Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

Total Volume

$5.90K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

Vol

$5.90K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.90K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.90K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	97%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	95%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	85%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	70%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	54%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	36%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	21%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$5.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Vote Percent - Matt Dunlap If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are inc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Matt Dunlap

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are inc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total vali"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

Volume$5.90K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total vali

KALSHI

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is 42% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total vali

KALSHI

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total vali

KALSHI

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is 46% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total vali

KALSHI

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Dunlap in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Dunlap ÷ total vali

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

52¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/f6vzz5" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

Markets (9)

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

ME-02 House election: Matt Dunlap vote percent (1st Round)

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Will Matt Dunlap receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 ME-02 House election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget