Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

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Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

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12 markets tracked

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	98%
Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	97%
Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	93%
Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	84%
Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	69%
Will at least 2,400,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	50%
Will at least 2,500,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	31%
Will at least 2,600,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	16%
Will at least 2,700,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will at least 2,800,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will at least 3,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will at least 2,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?	Kalshi	3%

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98%

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About This Event

On Oct 25, 2026 If at least X valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. The count is the total of valid votes, including “I do not support anyone” votes, and invalid ballots in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election, as published by the Central Election Commission, CIK, including sections abroad. Registered voters, voter-list signatures and the second round do not count. S

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 25, 2026

If at least X valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. The count is the total of valid votes, including “I do not support anyone” votes, and invalid ballots in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election, as published by the Central Election Commission, CIK, including sections abroad. Registered voters, voter-list signatures and the second round do not count. S

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If at least 3,000,000 valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the total of valid votes (including “I do not support anyone” votes) and invalid ballots in the firs"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will at least 3,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will at least 2,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will at least 2,800,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will at least 2,700,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will at least 2,600,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will at least 2,500,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will at least 2,400,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

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KALSHI

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

If at least 1,900,000 valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the total of valid votes (including “I do not support anyone” votes) and invalid ballots in the firs

KALSHI

Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

If at least 2,000,000 valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the total of valid votes (including “I do not support anyone” votes) and invalid ballots in the firs

KALSHI

Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.0¢No 7.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

If at least 2,100,000 valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the total of valid votes (including “I do not support anyone” votes) and invalid ballots in the firs

KALSHI

Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

If at least 2,200,000 valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the total of valid votes (including “I do not support anyone” votes) and invalid ballots in the firs

KALSHI

Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

If at least 2,300,000 valid and invalid ballots, in combination are cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the total of valid votes (including “I do not support anyone” votes) and invalid ballots in the firs

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/f6xO6A" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout"></iframe>

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Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

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Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

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Events (1)

Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

Markets (12)

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

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Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bulgarian presidential election first round: voter turnout

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 1,900,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,000,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,100,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,200,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

Will at least 2,300,000 people vote in the first round of Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential election?

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