Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks who will be the next individual to officially assume the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin after the Berlin parliamentary elections scheduled for September 20, 2026 [1]. The rules state that "To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in," and that "Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market" [1]. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is "official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin," although "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The May 31, 2027 date is a resolution deadline in the rules, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:39:12.471Z [1]. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample contains all five individual Yes/No markets for this Polymarket event, with Yes prices of 0.82 for Elif Eralp, 0.16 for Stefan Evers, 0.005 for Werner Graf, 0.0045 for Steffen Krach, and 0.001 for Kristin Brinker [1]. The listed sample does not include an "Other" contract, so these five prices should not be read as the full field. The saved data also does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome.

Each market is worded as a separate question about one named person, so the prices are not directly comparable as a single distribution across platforms, and no combined average is appropriate here.

The saved markets list an end date of 2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z, which is earlier than the observation time. The event's listed end time is 2027-06-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not explain this difference, and the markets are labeled active. Readers should check the current platform listing before relying on either date.

What remains uncertain

The saved evidence does not show why prices are at their current levels, how many traders are involved, or how much liquidity sits behind each price. The volume field is not part of this snapshot, and volume would not measure liquidity or trader count in any case. The evidence also does not show whether any named candidate has been sworn in, since the snapshot predates any such event and the rules require an official swearing in. Any later status must be checked against the primary source the rules name [1].

References

1. Polymarket: Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.