Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Total Volume

$32.74K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Vol

$32.74K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $32.74K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.74K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 73,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 70,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 70,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 69,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 69,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$32.74K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

October 12, 2026 If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 12, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 12, 2026

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 12, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above 

78,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $799
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $454
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 73,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $370
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $370
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $735
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 70,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 70,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 69,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 69,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Volume$32.74K

Markets19

19 of 19

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above 76,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above 75,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above 75,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above 74,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 is above 74,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

79¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/fBID0T" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Markets (19)

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 12, 2026

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 12, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget