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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (W)
Total Volume
$20.00
Events
1
Markets
1
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (W)
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $20.00
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $20.00
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (W)
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 55% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
55%
Top Probability
$20.00
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the WBB game between Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions and Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils on January 31 at 4:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently show a very close contest. The most active question asks whether the Grambling State Tigers will win by more than 4.5 points. The market gives this a 41% chance, which is essentially a coin flip. This means traders collectively see the game as highly competitive, with a slight expectation that Grambling State will win, but by a narrow margin. The low total amount wagered suggests this is a niche market with limited data, so the forecast carries more uncertainty than a major event.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors explain the tight odds. First, both teams play in the SWAC (Southwestern Athletic Conference), where games are often closely matched. Grambling State has a stronger overall record this season, which is why they are favored to win. However, Arkansas-Pine Bluff has shown it can keep games close, especially at home, and conference rivalry games are notoriously unpredictable.
Second, the specific 4.5-point spread, or "line," set by sportsbooks is directly influencing the prediction market. Traders are not just forecasting a win or loss, but whether Grambling can cover that spread. The near-even odds indicate that the sportsbook's line and the crowd's wisdom align, seeing this as a game that could realistically go either way against the spread.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The key event is the game itself, tipping off at 7:30 PM ET on January 26. Any last-minute news about player injuries or lineup changes released just before the game could shift the odds. Once the game begins, the market will close and resolve based on the final score.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For college basketball games, prediction markets and point spreads are generally reliable indicators of a game's competitiveness. Sportsbooks set efficient lines, and markets like this one often reflect that efficiency. However, for a lower-profile conference game with a smaller betting pool like this one, the "wisdom of the crowd" may be based on less information. The prediction is a good snapshot of informed expectations, but the coin-flip probability itself acknowledges the high chance of an upset or a very close finish.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign a 41% probability to Grambling State covering a -4.5 point spread against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. This price indicates the consensus view is that Grambling will win by roughly 4 points or less. A 41% chance on the favorite's spread is a weak endorsement, suggesting the market sees this as a close game where the Tigers are not a lock to win by five or more. With only $47,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin, making the price more susceptible to sharp moves from individual bets.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The pricing reflects Grambling State's inconsistent performance this season. While they entered conference play with a strong 8-5 non-conference record, their SWAC results have been mixed. They lack a dominant road victory that would justify strong confidence in covering a multi-possession spread. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, while holding a poor overall record, has been more competitive at home in conference games. Historical data shows SWAC games are often tightly contested, with final margins frequently within a single possession. The market is effectively pricing in Grambling's superior talent but discounting it due to league volatility and road-game uncertainty.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary factor that could shift the odds is pre-game injury or lineup news. A key player from either side being ruled out would immediately move the line. Given the low liquidity, even a moderate-sized bet could swing the probability by 10% or more in the final hours before tip-off. For a resolved market, this analysis serves to explain the betting consensus that formed. The thin volume underscores that this was a niche market, with pricing driven more by a handful of informed SWAC bettors than broad public sentiment.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This market traded exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi is typical for lower-profile collegiate events. This isolation means there was no arbitrage opportunity and no competing price discovery mechanism. The 41% probability was set solely by Polymarket participants, who generally exhibit a higher risk tolerance for sports speculation compared to regulated sportsbooks.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.