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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

Name: Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner
End: 2026-05-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.81M

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

Vol

$1.81M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.81M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.81M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	99%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%
Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%
Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%
Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%
Will Sovereignty Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$1.81M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 7, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 20"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.81M
* **Total Liquidity:** $176.0K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $1.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $28.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $127.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $40.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $65.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $60.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $107.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Sovereignty Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $32.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics