Unemployment rate in May 2026? | PredictPedia

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23 markets tracked

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

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Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.4%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.3%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.2%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.1%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.0%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.9%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.8%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.7%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.6%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.5%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.4%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.3%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.2%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.1%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.0%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.9%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.8%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.7%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.6%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.5%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.4%)	Kalshi	50%
Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.3%)	Kalshi	50%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Unemployment rate in May 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In May 2026

If the Unemployment rate is exactly X in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.5% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $455.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.2%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.1%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.9%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.8%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.7%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.2%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.1%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.9%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.8%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.7%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 3.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

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Unemployment rate in May 2026?

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Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.4%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.4%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.3%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.3%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.2%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.2%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.1%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.1%)

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Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

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Unemployment rate in May 2026?

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.5%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.4%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.4%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.3%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.3%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.2%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.2%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.1%)

Unemployment rate in May 2026? (Exactly 5.1%)

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