Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Closest House race in 2026?

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Closest House race in 2026?

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34 markets tracked

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

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Single-Platform Markets(34)

Market	Platform	Price
Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will VA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will TX-35 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will TX-34 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will TX-23 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will TX-15 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will SC-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will OH-09 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will NY-21 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will NY-17 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will NV-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will NC-11 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will NC-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will MT-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will MN-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will MI-10 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will MI-07 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will MI-04 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will ME-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will IA-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will IA-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will FL-25 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will FL-22 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will FL-14 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will FL-13 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will FL-09 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will FL-07 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will CO-04 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will AK-AL have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will WI-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Before Jan 3, 2027 If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff election

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Closest House race in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 3, 2027

If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff election

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If WI-03 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will WI-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will VA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will TX-35 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will TX-34 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will TX-23 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will TX-15 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will SC-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will OH-09 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will NY-21 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will NY-17 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will NV-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will NC-11 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will NC-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will MT-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will MN-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will MI-10 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will MI-07 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will MI-04 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will ME-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will IA-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will IA-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will FL-25 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will FL-22 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will FL-14 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will FL-13 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will FL-09 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will FL-07 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will CO-04 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will AK-AL have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Closest House race in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets34

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KALSHI

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

If PA-01 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishe

KALSHI

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

If CO-03 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishe

KALSHI

Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

If AZ-02 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishe

KALSHI

Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

If AL-02 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishe

KALSHI

Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.1¢No 95.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

If WI-01 has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishe

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Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

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Events (1)

Closest House race in 2026?

Markets (34)

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

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Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Closest House race in 2026?

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will PA-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AZ-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will AL-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

Will WI-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?

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