2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
PM $453.9K · K 8.14M contracts
3
42
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
PM $453.9K · K 8.14M contracts
3
42
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Democrats 14-16% is priced at 77.3% on Polymarket and 76.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 14-16%Same question, fine print differs | 77.3% | 76.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Democrats 12-14%Same question, fine print differs | 20.7% | 21.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Democrats 16%+Same question, fine print differs | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Democrats 10-12%Same question, fine print differs | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Democrats 0-2%Same question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Democrats 2-4%Same question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Democrats 4-6%Same question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Democrats 6-8%Same question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $453.9K · K 8.14M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
42
Saved contracts
10
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least X percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-05T15:00:06.642Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The three provider events all track the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote, but their contract wording differs. The Kalshi generic ballot event resolves on the Democratic minus Republican margin "At the release of the national House popular vote data," with each range "inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound" and "No rounding shall be applied" [1]. The Polymarket event uses absolute difference in valid votes and says a value exactly on a boundary "will resolve to the higher range bracket," with results taken from the U.S. Clerk of the House [2]. The Kalshi directional event asks whether the Democratic minus Republican margin "is at least X percentage points" [3]. Because these rules differ, the events are not interchangeable.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-11-05T15:00:06Z, and the retrieval time is 2026-11-05T15:38:15Z. These are snapshot times, not live quotes, and the prices below describe only that moment.
In the Kalshi generic ballot event, the 12 to 14 point bracket is priced Yes at 0.695 and the 14 to 16 point bracket at 0.205 [1]. In the Polymarket event, the 12 to 14 point bracket is Yes at 0.722 and the 14 to 16 point bracket at 0.223 [2]. These two sets of prices come from different events with different boundary rules, so they should be read separately rather than compared as one ranking. In the Kalshi directional event, the "at least 13 points" contract is Yes at 0.55 and "at least 14 points" at 0.135 [3].
The Polymarket listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, which is earlier than the observation time, yet the market is still shown as active [2]. The Kalshi generic ballot market date field is 2028-02-01, and the directional market date field is 2027-02-03 [1][3]. These are listed dates in the data, not announced resolution events.
Sample coverage is uneven. The Kalshi generic event includes all 10 of its markets, while the Polymarket and Kalshi directional events each include 12 of 13 markets, so both are partial samples [1][2][3]. Omitted outcomes should not be assumed to have lower prices. Volume and liquidity are not in this snapshot, so the prices cannot be read as depth or trader agreement.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why any price changed, how many traders hold positions, or whether any event has resolved. Prices are not executable quotes, and differences between the events are not arbitrage opportunities given their different wording.
References
- Kalshi: 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot). Provider data observed 2026-11-05T15:00:06.642Z.
- Polymarket: 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-11-05T15:00:06.642Z.
- Kalshi: 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional). Provider data observed 2026-11-05T15:00:06.642Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract family concerns the margin between Democratic and Republican performance in the national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules define the margin as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates [1]. A positive value means Democrats won the national House popular vote, and a negative value means Republicans won it [1][3]. The three provider events in the supplied material use somewhat different structures. Kalshi's generic ballot event sorts the margin into ranges, and each range resolves to Yes if the margin falls in it. Those ranges include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, and no rounding is applied, so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6 to 7% range rather than the 5 to 6% range [1]. The Polymarket event also uses brackets and states that if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range [2]. Kalshi's directional event asks a different question: whether the Democratic minus Republican margin is at least a stated number of percentage points [3]. The Polymarket rules define the margin as the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages for each party's House candidates, and they count only votes for voting members from the 50 states, excluding Delegates and the Resident Commissioner [2]. Polymarket also states that the reported figures come from vote totals published by the U.S. Clerk of the House, and that any recount included in that publication will be considered [2]. Its rules further provide that if the House midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other, and that another credible source may be chosen if the Clerk does not publish results by that date [2]. Kalshi's generic ballot event says it resolves at the release of the national House popular vote data [1]. The sources list different end dates. Kalshi's generic ballot markets show an end date of February 1, 2028, and its directional markets show February 3, 2027. Polymarket lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1][2][3]. These are listed fields in the provider data, not announced dates for when results will be released. The Polymarket rules describe the election as scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2].
Why It Matters
These contracts measure how the national House popular vote is expected to split between the two major parties, expressed as a percentage point margin. Because the margin is calculated from party vote percentages rather than seats, it describes the national vote split and not which party controls the chamber [1][2]. Each event sets its own resolution rules, so contracts that look similar can settle on different thresholds, rounding conventions, and sources. The Kalshi generic ballot uses inclusive lower bounds and exclusive upper bounds without rounding [1], while the Kalshi directional event asks whether the margin reaches a single threshold [3]. Readers should check the rules of the specific contract before comparing its price with another event's contract.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-05 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The Kalshi generic ballot rules calculate it as the Democratic House candidates' vote percentage minus the Republican House candidates' vote percentage in the general election, with no rounding applied [1]. Polymarket defines it as the absolute difference between the two party percentages, calculated from valid votes for U.S. Representative candidates [2].
Which source determines the result for the Polymarket contract?
Polymarket states that the market resolves according to vote totals published by the U.S. Clerk of the House, and that any recount included in that publication will be considered [2]. If the Clerk does not publish results by June 30, 2027, another credible source may be chosen [2].
What happens to a margin that falls exactly on a boundary?
Kalshi's generic ballot ranges include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, so the margin resolves in the higher range [1]. Polymarket says a value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher range bracket [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
1
Same-question pairs
10
Largest saved gap: 2.4 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
