Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Total Volume

$19.23

Events

Markets

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2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Vol

$19.23

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $19.23

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.23

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	40%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	31%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Donald J. Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$19.23

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

IA If X wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** IA

If X wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Thomas Massie wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and ex"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Donald J. Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Donald J. Trump Jr. win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Volume$19.23

Markets10

10 of 10

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KALSHI

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.0¢No 60.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

If J.D. Vance wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

KALSHI

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

If Marco Rubio wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expi

KALSHI

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

If Thomas Massie wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and ex

KALSHI

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

If Ted Cruz wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire

KALSHI

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

If Tucker Carlson wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and e

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2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Markets (10)

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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