$164.00
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3
$164.00
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, April 5, 2026 between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07.
Prediction markets give SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 an 81% chance of combining for over 1.5 total goals in their upcoming match. In simpler terms, traders see about a 4 in 5 likelihood that at least two goals will be scored by both teams together. This isn't a guarantee, but it shows strong collective confidence in an offensive game.
Two main factors explain these odds. First, both teams have defensive weaknesses that often lead to high-scoring games. Paderborn has one of the league's least effective defenses, consistently conceding goals. Fürth, while sometimes stronger at home, also has stretches of poor defensive organization.
Second, the teams' recent direct matchups support this forecast. Their last five meetings have all finished with over 1.5 goals, and four of those had over 2.5 goals. Their playing styles tend to create open matches with chances at both ends. The 2. Bundesliga as a whole also averages nearly 3 goals per game this season, making higher-scoring outcomes more common than in many top leagues.
The main event is the match itself on Friday, April 5. Any significant team news before kickoff could shift expectations. Watch for official lineups, especially news about key attacking players or defenders missing through injury or suspension. A major last-minute change to either team's usual starting eleven might cause some traders to reassess the probability of a high-scoring game.
For basic statistical outcomes like total goals in a soccer match, prediction markets have a decent track record. They aggregate many opinions and often weigh recent team form and historical trends effectively. However, soccer always involves randomness. A single red card, an unusual tactical approach, or simply poor finishing can defy the odds. Markets this specific also tend to have fewer participants, which can sometimes make prices more volatile if new information emerges.
The Polymarket contract for the 2. Bundesliga match between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 is pricing an 81% probability that the game will feature over 1.5 total goals. This price indicates a strong market expectation for at least two goals to be scored. However, with only $0K in volume reported across nine related markets, this probability is based on extremely thin liquidity. The market lacks the capital to confirm this is a robust consensus view, making the current odds more indicative of initial sentiment than a heavily traded position.
The high probability for over 1.5 goals aligns with the recent performance profiles of both clubs. Historically, matches involving these teams tend to be open. In the current 2024/25 2. Bundesliga season, Paderborn’s games are consistently high-scoring, with their matches averaging over 3.0 total goals. Fürth’s defensive record has been problematic, conceding multiple goals in several recent fixtures. The tactical approach of both sides often prioritizes attacking play over defensive solidity, which creates frequent scoring opportunities. This fundamental tendency is the primary driver behind the market's high confidence in a multi-goal game.
The current 81% price is vulnerable to significant shifts due to the market's low liquidity. Any major team news announced before the April 5 kickoff could dramatically move the needle. Key updates would include injury reports for either team's primary attackers or defensive linchpins. A last-minute change in managerial tactics, such as a shift to a more conservative formation by either side, would also challenge the high-scoring assumption. Bettors should monitor pre-match press conferences in the days leading up to the game, as official statements on player availability and strategy are the most likely catalysts for price movement in this illiquid market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on additional betting markets for the 2. Bundesliga soccer match between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07, scheduled for April 5 at 7:30 AM Eastern Time. The 2. Bundesliga is Germany's second-tier professional football league, operating directly below the Bundesliga. This specific fixture is part of the league's 28th matchday of the 2023-2024 season. Prediction markets allow participants to wager on various outcomes beyond the simple win-draw-win result, such as the exact score, total goals, individual player performances, or specific in-game events. These markets have grown in popularity as they offer more nuanced ways to engage with the sport and reflect deeper analytical perspectives on team matchups. Interest in this match stems from its potential impact on the league table. Both teams are typically positioned in the middle of the 2. Bundesliga standings, making the match significant for their respective pushes toward promotion playoffs or their efforts to avoid relegation battles. Fürth, based in Bavaria, and Paderborn, from North Rhine-Westphalia, have developed a competitive rivalry in recent seasons as they frequently contest similar positions in the league. The timing of the match, a Friday evening fixture in Germany, also makes it a standalone event that attracts heightened attention from fans and bettors. The availability of 'more markets' indicates a demand for sophisticated betting options, driven by detailed statistical analysis of team form, head-to-head records, and player availability.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth was founded in 1903 and has a long history in German football, including a German championship in 1914. The club spent most of the 21st century oscillating between the 2. Bundesliga and 3. Liga before earning a surprise promotion to the Bundesliga for the 2021-2022 season. They were relegated after just one year. SC Paderborn 07's history is marked by rapid rises and falls. The club achieved a remarkable multi-year ascent from the fourth division to the Bundesliga between 2011 and 2014. Like Fürth, their first Bundesliga stint in 2014-2015 ended in relegation, and they have since been a 2. Bundesliga fixture. The competitive history between these two clubs in the 2. Bundesliga is relatively recent but has become consistent. They first met in the second division during the 2019-2020 season. Since then, they have faced each other multiple times each season, creating a direct rivalry. The head-to-head record is often close, with matches frequently featuring multiple goals. For example, in their first meeting of the 2023-2024 season in November 2023, Paderborn won 3-2 at home. This pattern of high-scoring games informs prediction markets that focus on total goals or both teams scoring.
Beyond the immediate sporting result, prediction markets for matches like this reflect the growing datafication of sports and the economic ecosystem around it. These markets are part of a global sports betting industry valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The availability of diverse markets increases engagement from fans and bettors, which drives revenue for betting operators and, through licensing deals, provides indirect financial support to leagues and clubs. For the clubs themselves, every match point has tangible financial consequences. Final league position determines the distribution of central broadcasting revenue from the Deutsche Fußball Liga (DFL). The difference between a mid-table finish and a place in the promotion playoffs can be worth several million euros. This financial pressure influences team decisions, transfer strategies, and long-term stability. For the cities of Fürth and Paderborn, successful teams boost local pride, increase matchday tourism, and generate business for hospitality sectors. The performance of key players can also affect their future transfer values, impacting club finances.
As of late March 2024, both teams are preparing for the final stretch of the season. The match occurs during the international break for senior national teams, meaning both squads will have had a full week of training without losing players to international duty. This allows for more focused tactical preparation. Recent form is a key consideration. Fürth's results in the weeks leading up to this match will shape their confidence, especially at home. Paderborn's ability to improve their poor away record will be tested. Team news regarding injuries or suspensions, particularly to key players like Hrgota or Muslija, will significantly shift the odds in various prediction markets in the days before kickoff.
The match kicks off at 7:30 AM Eastern Time (ET) on April 5, 2024. This is 1:30 PM Central European Time (CET) in Germany and 12:30 PM British Summer Time (BST) in the UK.
In Germany, the match is broadcast on Sky Sport. International viewing options vary by region, with services like ESPN+ often holding broadcasting rights for the 2. Bundesliga in the United States.
In their last ten competitive meetings across all competitions, the record is relatively even. As of March 2024, Fürth has won three, Paderborn has won four, and three matches have ended in draws.
Popular markets include Match Result (1X2), Both Teams to Score, Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals, and Anytime Goalscorer. More specific markets might include Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time result, and Total Corners.
Based on home advantage and Paderborn's weaker away form, bookmakers typically list Greuther Fürth as slight favorites. However, the odds are usually close, reflecting the competitive nature of past encounters.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 23% |
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