This prediction market topic concerns whether the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary group in Sudan, will capture the strategically important city of Dilling in South Kordofan state by January 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the RSF establishing military control over Dilling's city courthouse, a specific geographic marker, by that deadline. This question is a microcosm of the broader Sudanese civil war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the country's official military, and the RSF, which evolved from the Janjaweed militias of the Darfur conflict. Dilling is a key logistical and symbolic prize, sitting along vital supply routes in the Nuba Mountains region and serving as a major urban center for the local population. The battle for Dilling is part of the RSF's wider campaign to consolidate control over Sudan's central and western regions, challenging the SAF's hold on territory and resources. International observers, humanitarian agencies, and regional powers are closely monitoring this front, as its outcome could significantly alter the war's momentum and impact the delivery of aid to millions of civilians caught in the conflict.

Historical Context

The current battle for Dilling is rooted in Sudan's long history of regional conflict and the specific rise of the RSF. South Kordofan, and the Nuba Mountains in particular, have been a conflict zone for decades, most notably during the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) when the region was a stronghold for the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). The unresolved issues of marginalization, land, and identity from that war persist. The direct precursor to the RSF's involvement is the Darfur conflict beginning in 2003, where the government mobilized Arab militias known as the Janjaweed to crush a rebellion. These militias were later formalized into the RSF in 2013 by then-President Omar al-Bashir. Following a popular uprising that ousted al-Bashir in April 2019, the RSF and SAF formed an uneasy alliance in a transitional government, but competition for power and control over the state's economic resources led to the outbreak of full-scale war on April 15, 2023. The RSF's campaign into South Kordofan in late 2023 and 2024 follows a pattern of seeking control over agricultural land, strategic trade routes, and mineral resources, echoing tactics used in Darfur and West Kordofan.

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