Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Michigan Governor margin of victory

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$1.38K

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Michigan Governor margin of victory

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$1.38K

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?	Kalshi	86%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?	Kalshi	75%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?	Kalshi	59%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?	Kalshi	42%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?	Kalshi	27%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 17 percentage points?	Kalshi	15%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 20 percentage points?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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86%

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$1.38K

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About This Event

Michigan Governor If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes fi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Michigan Governor margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Michigan Governor

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes fi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 20 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 17 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $456
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $68
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Michigan Governor margin of victory

Volume$1.38K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democr

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democr

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democr

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democ

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democ

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Michigan Governor margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

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Events (1)

Michigan Governor margin of victory

Markets (7)

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

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Michigan Governor margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Michigan be at least 14 percentage points?

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