Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Total Volume

$16.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Vol

$16.62K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $16.62K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.62K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	47%
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$16.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

U.S.-Iran senior-level meeting If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** U.S.-Iran senior-level meeting

If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (fr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Volume$16.62K

Markets3

3 of 3

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KALSHI

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (fr

KALSHI

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?

If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (fr

KALSHI

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?

If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (fr

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

32¢

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When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

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Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Markets (3)

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Nov 1, 2026?

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