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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Oregon Senate Election Winner

Oregon Senate Election Winner
Vol

PM $7.5K

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Events

1

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Jeff Merkley (D) at 98.2%.

Polymarket

  1. Jeff Merkley (D)98.2%
  2. David Brock Smith (R)1.7%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $7.5K

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Oregon Senate margin of victory

Oregon Senate margin of victory

K 1.7K contracts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Oregon be at least 13 percentage points?Yes 93.7%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Oregon be at least 15 percentage points?Yes 91.5%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Oregon be at least 17 percentage points?Yes 85.7%
+8 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Oregon Senate Election Margin of Victory

Oregon Senate Election Margin of Victory

PM $9.7K
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon Senate election by 15%-20%?Yes 23%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon Senate election by 25%-30%?Yes 23%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon Senate election by 20%-25%?Yes 19.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Oregon Senate General Election: voter turnout

Oregon Senate General Election: voter turnout

K 2.3K contracts
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon Senate General Election be above 1700000?Yes 89%
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon Senate General Election be above 1800000?Yes 80%
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon Senate General Election be above 1930000?Yes 64%
+5 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Oregon Senate election: David Brock Smith vote percent

Oregon Senate election: David Brock Smith vote percent

K 505 contracts
Will David Brock Smith receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Senate election?Yes 93%
Will David Brock Smith receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Senate election?Yes 82%
Will David Brock Smith receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Senate election?Yes 63.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Oregon Senate election: Jeff Merkley vote percent

Oregon Senate election: Jeff Merkley vote percent

K 0 contracts
Will Jeff Merkley receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Senate election?Yes 87%
Will Jeff Merkley receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Senate election?Yes 72%
Will Jeff Merkley receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Senate election?Yes 53%
+5 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

K 211.38 contracts
Will the number of Washington State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 33 after the November 3, 2026 general election?Yes 50%
Will the number of Washington House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 66 after the November 3, 2026 general election?Yes 50%
Will the number of Vermont Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?Yes 50%
+21 moreNext deadline Apr 3, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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