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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-06 House seat? | Poly | 93% |
Will the Republican Party win the PA-06 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by official results on November 4, 2026. Pennsylvania's 6th district is a competitive seat that has shifted between parties in recent cycles, making it a frequent target for national political spending and a bellwether for broader electoral trends. The district currently includes most of Chester County and parts of Berks and Lancaster Counties, representing a mix of suburban, exurban, and rural communities. The 2026 election will occur during a midterm cycle where control of the House, currently held by Republicans, will again be contested. The race will test the durability of recent Republican gains in southeastern Pennsylvania and the Democratic Party's ability to reclaim suburban voters. Interest in this market stems from the district's status as a genuine swing seat, its role in determining House control, and its reflection of evolving political coalitions in a critical presidential battleground state.
Pennsylvania's 6th district has undergone significant geographic and political changes over the past two decades. Following the 2000 census, the district was based in the Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and Montgomery Counties and was represented by Republican Jim Gerlach from 2003 to 2015. Gerlach consistently won close elections, reflecting the district's competitive nature. The 2018 election marked a major shift when Democrat Chrissy Houlahan won the open seat vacated by Republican Pat Meehan, who resigned amid scandal. Houlahan's victory was part of a Democratic wave that flipped suburban districts nationwide. She won reelection in 2020 and 2022 by comfortable margins, suggesting the district had trended toward Democrats. However, the 2022 redistricting process altered the district's composition. The new map, enacted by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in February 2022, removed Democratic-leaning areas of Montgomery County and added more Republican territory in Berks and Lancaster Counties. This change made the district more competitive, as demonstrated by Ryan Mackenzie's narrow victory in 2024. The district's voting history shows it often mirrors national trends, backing the presidential winner in every election from 2000 through 2020 before supporting Donald Trump in 2024.
The outcome of the PA-06 election will help determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in 2027. With the House currently divided narrowly, each competitive seat like this one could be decisive for legislative majorities. Control of the House affects everything from government funding and investigations to the passage of major legislation. The race also serves as a barometer for political trends in Pennsylvania, a perennial swing state that has decided recent presidential elections. A Democratic win would signal resilience in the Philadelphia suburbs, while a Republican victory would suggest continued inroads with educated suburban voters. For residents, the election determines who will advocate for local priorities in Congress, including infrastructure projects like improvements to Route 422, support for agriculture in Berks and Lancaster Counties, and environmental policies affecting the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The campaign itself will bring millions of dollars in political spending to the district, influencing local media and community engagement.
As of early 2025, Republican Ryan Mackenzie is the incumbent representative following his November 2024 victory. He has not formally announced whether he will seek reelection in 2026, though most political observers expect him to run. The Democratic field is unsettled, with 2024 nominee Janelle Stelson considering another bid and other potential candidates evaluating the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has listed PA-06 as a target district for 2026. Fundraising for the next cycle will begin in earnest during 2025, with both parties conducting polls to assess the political environment. The district boundaries remain unchanged from 2024, as the next redistricting will not occur until after the 2030 census.
The district includes all of Chester County, the southern portion of Berks County including Reading, and a small part of Lancaster County. The largest population centers are West Chester, Reading, and Coatesville.
Republican Ryan Mackenzie won the 2024 election for Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district. He defeated Democrat Janelle Stelson with approximately 51% of the vote to her 49%.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Pennsylvania's primary election to select party nominees will likely occur in May 2026, though the exact date has not been set.
The district voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. It supported Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, reflecting its swing district status over multiple election cycles.
Key issues typically include the economy and inflation, healthcare costs, abortion policy, and local concerns like transportation infrastructure and environmental protection. Candidates often focus on suburban quality-of-life issues.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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