
$59.30K
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$59.30K
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3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.796? | Kalshi | 99% |
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.830? | Kalshi | 24% |
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.850? | Kalshi | 5% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Jan 19, 2026 If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than X on Jan 19, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that the U.S. national average for regular gasoline will exceed $2.796 per gallon on January 19, 2026. On Kalshi, the "Yes" contract is trading at 100 cents, implying a 100% probability. This indicates traders see the specified price threshold as exceptionally low and virtually guaranteed to be surpassed. The market's high confidence is notable given the typical volatility in energy prices.
Two primary factors explain this pricing. First, the $2.796 threshold is historically low. According to AAA data, the U.S. national average has not traded consistently below this level since early 2021. Even during significant demand drops, baseline refining costs, crude oil prices, and taxes have maintained a floor well above this mark. Second, structural inflationary pressures in the energy sector, including strategic petroleum reserve management policies and long-term underinvestment in refining capacity, support a higher price floor. The market is effectively betting that a reversion to pre-2020 price levels is implausible within the next two years.
While the current probability is maximal, a drastic shift could only occur from an unprecedented economic or geopolitical event. A severe and prolonged global recession crushing oil demand, combined with a technological breakthrough in alternative energy that immediately displaces gasoline, could theoretically pressure prices below this threshold. However, no such catalysts are on the near-term horizon. The market will monitor weekly EIA inventory reports and OPEC+ production decisions, but these typically influence prices within a band far exceeding $2.80. The primary risk to this consensus is a flaw in the market itself, such as low liquidity, with only $47K in volume spread thinly across three related markets potentially distorting the price signal.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether the average price for regular gasoline in the United States will be strictly greater than a specified threshold, denoted as X, on January 19, 2026. The resolution will be determined by data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), a trusted source for fuel price tracking. Gasoline prices are a critical economic indicator, directly impacting household budgets, consumer spending patterns, and broader inflationary pressures. The specific date places this question in the context of mid-winter demand, post-holiday travel patterns, and the early stages of the calendar year, a period often influenced by geopolitical events, refinery maintenance schedules, and global oil market dynamics. Interest in this topic stems from its immediate relevance to millions of Americans and its role as a bellwether for economic health. Analysts, policymakers, and ordinary consumers monitor gas prices closely because they are highly visible, volatile, and politically sensitive. A rise in prices can erode disposable income, influence Federal Reserve policy decisions on interest rates, and affect the political landscape. The prediction market allows participants to hedge risk or express a view on the complex interplay of factors that determine this single, impactful number. Recent years have demonstrated extreme volatility, with prices swinging from multi-year lows during the pandemic to record highs following geopolitical conflicts, making forward-looking assessments like this one particularly challenging and valuable.
Historically, US gasoline prices have been subject to dramatic swings driven by geopolitical events, economic cycles, and supply shocks. The Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74 caused the first major price shock, introducing the concept of 'energy crisis' to the American public and leading to the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Prices remained relatively stable through the 1990s but began a sustained climb in the early 2000s, peaking at a national average of $4.11 per gallon in July 2008, driven by strong global demand and market speculation before the Financial Crisis caused a collapse. The shale revolution of the 2010s transformed the US into a top global producer, leading to a period of lower, more stable prices, with averages frequently below $3.00 per gallon for much of the decade. This era ended abruptly with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when demand vanished and prices briefly plunged below $2.00. The subsequent recovery, compounded by supply chain issues and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggered the most volatile period in history, with the national average reaching an all-time nominal high of $5.02 per gallon in June 2022. This recent history of extreme peaks and troughs underscores the difficulty of predicting prices even a week in advance, let alone years ahead, and sets the stage for the January 2026 date in question.
Gasoline prices function as a highly visible tax on mobility and a direct input cost for virtually every sector of the economy. When prices rise, they immediately reduce household disposable income, forcing trade-offs in spending that can slow consumer-driven economic growth. For lower-income families, who spend a larger proportion of their budget on transportation, the impact is disproportionately severe, exacerbating economic inequality. Furthermore, transportation costs are embedded in the price of all goods shipped by truck, meaning gasoline inflation contributes directly to broader Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, influencing monetary policy and interest rates for mortgages and loans. Politically, the price at the pump is a potent symbol of economic management. Incumbent administrations often face intense scrutiny and criticism during periods of high prices, regardless of the global nature of the oil market. Consequently, energy policy, including decisions on drilling leases, pipeline approvals, and releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, is frequently driven by short-term price pressures, with long-term implications for energy security and climate goals.
As of late 2024, the market is characterized by significant uncertainty. Global crude oil prices have moderated from their 2022 peaks but remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms due to ongoing OPEC+ production restraints and persistent geopolitical risks in key producing regions. US refinery capacity has stabilized after previous outages, but the system operates with little spare capacity, leaving it vulnerable to shocks. The Biden administration has largely halted releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and is focused on refilling it, removing a tool that previously tempered prices. Looking toward 2026, analysts are divided, weighing the potential for increased electric vehicle adoption and efficiency gains against robust demand for gasoline in the near term and the ever-present risk of supply disruptions.
The primary factors are the global price of crude oil (50-60% of the cost), refinery production and maintenance cycles, gasoline inventory levels, seasonal demand patterns, and federal/state taxes. Geopolitical events affecting oil producers are also a major driver.
Variation is primarily due to different state gasoline taxes, which can differ by over 50 cents per gallon. Additional factors include proximity to refineries and major supply pipelines, state-specific fuel blend requirements (like California's stricter CARB gasoline), and local market competition.
The SPR is a stockpile of crude oil, not gasoline. A large emergency release of crude oil, as seen in 2022, increases global supply, which can lower crude oil prices and, subsequently, gasoline prices. Its influence is on market sentiment and as a buffer against severe supply shocks.
Presidential policies have limited direct, short-term impact on the globally-traded commodity price of oil. However, policies on federal leasing for oil production, pipeline approvals, and releases from the SPR can influence longer-term supply expectations and market psychology, indirectly affecting prices.
Prices generally rise in late spring and summer due to increased driving demand and the switch to more expensive summer-grade gasoline blends designed to reduce smog. Prices often fall in late fall and winter as demand decreases and cheaper winter blends are allowed.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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