Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Total Volume

$10.55K

Events

Markets

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Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Vol

$10.55K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.55K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.55K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Bond Question 1 pass?	Kalshi	97%
Will Bond Question 2 pass?	Kalshi	90%
Will Bond Question 3 pass?	Kalshi	85%
Will Amendment 3 pass?	Kalshi	73%
Will Amendment 1 pass?	Kalshi	73%
Will Amendment 2 pass?	Kalshi	71%
Will Amendment 4 pass?	Kalshi	43%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$10.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

New Mexico If X passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** New Mexico

If X passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Higher Education Bond passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Bond Question 3 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Bond Question 2 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bond Question 1 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Amendment 4 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Amendment 3 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Amendment 2 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Amendment 1 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $371
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Volume$10.55K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

If Senior Citizen Facilities Bond passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if th

KALSHI

Will Bond Question 2 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Bond Question 2 pass?

If Library Bond passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Bond Question 3 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Bond Question 3 pass?

If Higher Education Bond passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event o

KALSHI

Will Amendment 3 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Amendment 3 pass?

If Regents Selection Amendment passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the e

KALSHI

Will Amendment 1 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Amendment 1 pass?

If Pocket Veto Amendment passes in New Mexico, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event o

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76¢

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Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

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Will Bond Question 1 pass?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Markets (7)

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

Will Bond Question 2 pass?

Will Bond Question 2 pass?

Will Bond Question 3 pass?

Will Bond Question 3 pass?

Will Amendment 3 pass?

Will Amendment 3 pass?

Will Amendment 1 pass?

Will Amendment 1 pass?

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Will Bond Question 1 pass?

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Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

Will Bond Question 1 pass?

Will Bond Question 2 pass?

Will Bond Question 2 pass?

Will Bond Question 3 pass?

Will Bond Question 3 pass?

Will Amendment 3 pass?

Will Amendment 3 pass?

Will Amendment 1 pass?

Will Amendment 1 pass?

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