Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Islanders vs. Ducks
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Polymarket
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markets · $0.00
Kalshi
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markets · $0.00
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 4 at 10:00PM ET: If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders". If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will
Prediction markets currently give the New York Islanders a very slight edge to win their March 4th game against the Anaheim Ducks. The market implies a roughly 53% probability, which is essentially a coin flip. This means traders collectively see the game as nearly even, but with just enough confidence to tilt the odds toward the Islanders.
The near-even odds reflect the current realities for both teams. The Islanders are in a tight playoff race in the Eastern Conference, which typically provides strong motivation. However, their performance has been inconsistent this season, and they will be playing a road game in Anaheim.
The Ducks, while near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, are known for being a tougher opponent at home. They have also played better hockey recently, making them a classic "trap game" team that can beat more talented opponents on any given night. The market’s slight lean toward the Islanders likely accounts for their higher stakes, but the close odds acknowledge Anaheim’s home ice and recent competitiveness.
The main event is the game itself on Monday, March 4th. The most important signals to watch before the puck drops will be the official starting goalies, announced on game day. Injuries or last-minute roster changes, especially to key scorers or defensemen, could shift the odds. Performance in each team’s final game before this matchup could also influence trader sentiment, as a blowout loss or a key injury might move the probability.
For regular-season NHL games, prediction markets are generally a good aggregator of collective wisdom, often performing on par with or slightly better than betting odds. They effectively weigh factors like team strength, motivation, and location. However, their accuracy has limits. Hockey is a high-variance sport where a hot goalie or a single bounce can decide a game, so even a 53% forecast only indicates a small expected advantage. The market is better at framing the contest than guaranteeing an outcome.
The prediction market assigns the New York Islanders a 53% probability of defeating the Anaheim Ducks on March 4. This price indicates a marginal favorite status for the Islanders, essentially a coin flip with a slight edge. The market views this as an uncertain contest, not a decisive mismatch. The "Ducks win" contract is therefore priced around 47%, reflecting a nearly even matchup.
The Islanders' slight favoritism is built on two concrete factors. First, team performance metrics show a clear gap. Entering this matchup, the Islanders are competing for an Eastern Conference playoff spot, while the Ducks are near the bottom of the Western Conference standings. The Islanders have consistently earned more points per game against a tougher schedule. Second, goaltending stability favors New York. Ilya Sorokin provides a higher baseline of performance than Anaheim's tandem, which has struggled with consistency and goals-against averages all season. Home ice for the Ducks is likely priced in but is not enough to overcome this talent disparity.
The primary risk to the current pricing is the Islanders' schedule. They play a road game in Los Angeles on March 3, the night before this contest. A physically taxing game or travel fatigue could level the playing field against a Ducks team resting at home. Key injury reports for either side in the 24 hours before puck drop will also move the line significantly. If a top Islander scorer or Sorokin is unexpectedly unavailable, expect the probability to shift toward 50% or lower. The market will be most sensitive to the official starting goaltender confirmations on game day.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates observable arbitrage opportunities. All betting interest and price discovery are concentrated in this single contract, making its 53% probability the sole consensus indicator for this event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of a National Hockey League regular season game between the New York Islanders and the Anaheim Ducks, scheduled for March 4 at 10:00 PM Eastern Time at Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The market will resolve based on the official game result, including any overtime or shootout. If the Islanders win, the market resolves to 'Islanders.' If the Ducks win, it resolves to 'Ducks.' A postponed game keeps the market open until completion, while a canceled game with no makeup results in a 50-50 split resolution. This specific matchup is a rare inter-conference meeting, occurring only once or twice per season under the NHL's current scheduling format. The Islanders are a team from the Eastern Conference's Metropolitan Division, while the Ducks represent the Western Conference's Pacific Division. The game's outcome holds significance for both clubs' playoff positioning. The Islanders entered the 2023-24 season with postseason aspirations, while the Ducks are in a rebuilding phase focused on developing young talent. Bettors and fans follow these games for competitive intrigue and to gauge team performance against unfamiliar opponents. The late start time on the East Coast also influences viewership patterns and betting activity.
The New York Islanders and Anaheim Ducks have limited historical rivalry due to their placement in opposite conferences. Their first meeting was on October 10, 1996, a 3-1 Ducks victory. The franchises have experienced divergent eras of success. The Islanders won four consecutive Stanley Cups from 1980 to 1983 during their dynasty years. After a long period of mediocrity, they returned to contention in the late 2010s, reaching the NHL's semifinals in 2020 and 2021. The Anaheim Ducks entered the league in 1993 as the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. They won their only Stanley Cup in 2007, led by stars like Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. The Ducks were a consistent Western Conference power from 2013 to 2018, making deep playoff runs. The teams' recent history is one-sided. Since the 2018-19 season, the Islanders have dominated the matchup, winning five of the last six meetings. Their most recent game was a 5-1 Islanders victory on February 21, 2023, at UBS Arena. The overall series record is close, with the Islanders holding a slight edge in wins.
For the Islanders, every point is valuable in the tightly contested Eastern Conference playoff race. A loss to a lower-ranked Western team like Anaheim could have outsized consequences, potentially costing them a playoff berth by a single point. The game's result impacts fan morale, team confidence, and internal evaluations of roster strength ahead of the NHL trade deadline. For the Ducks, the game is an opportunity to measure the progress of their young core against a playoff-caliber opponent. Positive performances can accelerate development and inform management's plans for the offseason. The outcome also affects the NHL draft lottery odds for Anaheim, as losses improve their chances of securing a higher pick. Economically, the game generates revenue for the Ducks' organization through ticket sales, local broadcasting, and concessions at Honda Center. For sportsbooks and prediction markets, inter-conference games like this attract betting volume from fans less familiar with the opponent, creating different risk profiles compared to divisional matchups.
As of late February 2024, the New York Islanders are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Their performance has been inconsistent, with streaks of wins followed by losses. Goaltender Ilya Sorokin remains their most valuable player. The Anaheim Ducks are near the bottom of the NHL standings. They have been integrating several rookies, including Leo Carlsson, into regular roles. Veteran forward Trevor Zegras returned from a long-term injury in February, adding offensive skill to the lineup. Both teams completed their schedules leading into this game, with the Islanders playing on the road in California and the Ducks returning from a short trip.
The game is scheduled for 10:00 PM Eastern Time on March 4. For viewers on the West Coast, the local start time is 7:00 PM Pacific Time.
The game will be played at Honda Center in Anaheim, California. This is the home arena of the Anaheim Ducks.
The game will be broadcast locally on Bally Sports West for Ducks fans and MSGSN for Islanders fans. National broadcast availability depends on the NHL schedule.
Based on standings and team performance, the New York Islanders are typically favored. However, sportsbooks set precise odds based on goaltender confirmations, injuries, and recent form.
Historically, the Islanders have a winning record against the Ducks. The exact all-time record is 24 wins, 19 losses, and 5 ties or overtime losses for the Islanders.
No, the New York Islanders and Anaheim Ducks have never met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They are in different conferences, making a playoff matchup possible only in the Stanley Cup Final.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 48% |
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