
$54.36K
1
10

$54.36K
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has been nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in near-certainty for a Best Actor nomination at the 98th Academy Awards, with the leading contract for Timothée Chalamet trading at 100% on Polymarket. This price indicates the market views his nomination as virtually assured. Across 44 markets tracking various contenders, total volume exceeds $3.6 million, demonstrating high liquidity and significant trader conviction. The cross-platform spread shows Polymarket pricing consistently 4.0% higher than Kalshi for equivalent contracts, suggesting platform-specific risk assessments or liquidity differences.
The extreme confidence in Chalamet's nomination is driven by two concrete factors. First, his starring role in the upcoming blockbuster Dune: Part Three, scheduled for a late 2025 release, positions him perfectly within the Academy's nomination window. The previous Dune films earned widespread critical acclaim and multiple Oscars, establishing the franchise as awards-worthy. Second, Chalamet is considered overdue for a Best Actor nomination after previous recognition in the Best Actor category for Call Me by Your Name and sustained critical praise for his recent performances. The market is pricing in the combination of a high-profile vehicle and industry narrative.
While the market sees minimal risk, the primary catalyst that could alter the odds is the actual critical and guild reception to Dune: Part Three upon its release in November 2025. If the film underperforms artistically or Chalamet's performance is overshadowed by a co-star or a breakout performance from another actor in a late-year release, the perceived certainty could erode. The nominations announcement on January 22, 2026, is the final resolution. A surprise snub, though considered highly unlikely by the market, would result in a total contract collapse from 100% to 0%.
The consistent 4.0% price differential, with Polymarket higher than Kalshi, presents a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders able to operate on both platforms. This spread likely persists due to differences in trader demographics and platform accessibility, with Polymarket's crypto-native user base potentially exhibiting greater risk tolerance or stronger conviction in entertainment markets. The high liquidity across both platforms, however, indicates efficient price discovery overall, with the spread representing a persistent, but narrow, gap in market consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Avatar: Fire and Ash) | Kalshi | 100% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (F1) | Kalshi | 98% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Superman) | Kalshi | 83% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (The Lost Bus) | Kalshi | 66% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Frankenstein) | Kalshi | 61% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Sinners) | Kalshi | 56% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Tron: Ares) | Kalshi | 29% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Jurassic World Rebirth) | Kalshi | 20% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (Wicked: For Good) | Kalshi | 16% |
2026 Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations? (The Electric State) | Kalshi | 2% |
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