Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner
PM $7.0K
1
2
Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner
PM $7.0K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Chou Chun-mi at 84.5%.
Polymarket
- Chou Chun-mi84.5%
- Su Ching-chuan12.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $7.0K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers the Polymarket event "Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner." The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election," and that "Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered" [1]. The source notes that Taiwanese local elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026 [1]. That date appears in the contract rules as context. It is not evidence of when results will be announced.
The rules also set a fallback. If the result is unknown, or no candidate is elected, "by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other"" [1]. Resolution is tied to the consensus of credible reporting, with the Central Election Commission's official results used if there is ambiguity [1].
Each listed contract asks a different question. One asks whether Chou Chun-mi wins, and the other asks whether Su Ching-chuan wins. Each has a listed end time of 2026-11-29T04:59:00Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T12:09:14.288Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not live quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
For the Chou Chun-mi contract, the Yes price is 0.835 and the No price is 0.165 [1]. For the Su Ching-chuan contract, the Yes price is 0.115 and the No price is 0.885 [1]. Each contract's two outcomes are complementary within that contract. The two contracts are separate, so their prices should not be combined or averaged. A difference between contract prices is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity, since the snapshot does not show executable depth, fees, or settlement terms.
The sample is complete for this saved event. The coverage record shows two markets included out of two total, with partialSample set to false [1]. The source also states that the providers may not list every possible real-world candidate, so the sample does not confirm the full field of candidates.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why these prices are where they are. It contains no news, trader counts, or liquidity measures. The volume figures are not included, so the snapshot cannot indicate how deep or active either market is.
The election result, and whether it will be reported before the listed end time, are not established by this evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's evidence for this topic is a Polymarket event titled "Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner" [1]. The event concerns Taiwanese local elections, which are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026 [1][2]. The provider lists the event as active. The local elections will choose county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and village chiefs across 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities), and elected officials serve four-year terms [2]. The contract resolves to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder magistrates appointed before the election do not count [1]. The rules say the market will resolve based on election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves on the official results reported by the Central Election Commission of Taiwan [1]. The contract also has a fallback. If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-29 04:59 UTC [1]. That timestamp is a contract closing setting. It is not an announced date for a result, and the election date itself is November 28, 2026 [1][2]. At the observation time recorded for this article, two markets were saved under the event. One asks whether Chou Chun-mi will win, with a Yes price of 0.835 and a No price of 0.165. The other asks whether Su Ching-chuan will win, with a Yes price of 0.115 and a No price of 0.885 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of who will win. The sample includes every saved market for this provider event, but the provider event does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed, so a candidate who is absent from these two markets cannot be assumed to have any particular price.
Historical Context
Taiwan held earlier local elections on 24 November 2018, which chose county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and village or borough chiefs in 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities). Polling stations were open from 08:00 to 16:00 that day, and elected officials served four-year terms [3]. The 2026 elections follow the same structure and term length [2]. The supplied sources do not include Pingtung-specific election history.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which candidate will become the next Magistrate of Pingtung County through the November 28, 2026 election, as defined by the provider's resolution rules [1][2]. Because the rules specify official-result and placeholder-magistrate conditions, the question concerns the elected office rather than any interim appointment [1]. The prices show where two named candidates were trading at the recorded snapshot. They reflect market trading at that time and are not a forecast or a guarantee of an outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Pingtung County Magistrate contract resolve on?
It resolves to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of the election. Interim or placeholder magistrates appointed before the election are not considered [1].
What happens if no winner is known by the deadline?
If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Which source decides the result if reporting is ambiguous?
The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on the official results reported by the Central Election Commission of Taiwan [1].
Does a price on this contract equal the probability of winning?
No. The saved prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe only the two markets captured in the event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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