Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?

Name: What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?
End: 2026-11-01T04:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?

Vol

$5.42K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.42K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.42K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by October 31?	Poly	29%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?	Poly	29%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by October 31?	Poly	23%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 55 by October 31?	Poly	13%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by October 31?	Poly	7%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by October 31?	Poly	7%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by October 31?	Poly	7%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by October 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

29%

Top Probability

$5.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” or “Low” value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Inde

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” or “Low” value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Inde

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” or “Low” value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $341
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $173
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 55 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $534
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $654
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $173
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $217
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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