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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Name: Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
End: 2027-01-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$134.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Vol

$134.29K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $134.29K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $134.29K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	Poly	87%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$134.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 10, 2027 (178 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". O"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $134.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.5K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 54.55)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $134.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience