Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

Total Volume

$33.18

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

Vol

$33.18

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $33.18

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.18

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)	Kalshi	54%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)	Kalshi	51%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)	Kalshi	51%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)	Kalshi	51%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)	Kalshi	50%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 220000)	Kalshi	50%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 180000)	Kalshi	50%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 175000)	Kalshi	50%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 210000)	Kalshi	35%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 205000)	Kalshi	12%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 215000)	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$33.18

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

For the week ending Oct 10, 2026 If there are at least X initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For the week ending Oct 10, 2026

If there are at least X initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If there are at least 225000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $33
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 220000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 215000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 210000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 205000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 180000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 175000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

Volume$33.18

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

If there are at least 200000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)

If there are at least 195000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)

If there are at least 190000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)

If there are at least 185000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)

If there are at least 225000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Average Yes Price

42¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/fYPTTO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026"></iframe>

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Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

Markets (11)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 200000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 195000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 190000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 185000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 10, 2026? (At least 225000)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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