Treasury spread 10Y-3M by Dec 31, 2026 | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

Treasury spread 10Y-3M by Dec 31, 2026

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Treasury spread 10Y-3M by Dec 31, 2026

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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1 market tracked

Will the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread be above 0.75% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread be above 0.75% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	51%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

By Dec 31, 2026 If the FRED T10Y3M series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above 0.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Intraday moves do not count; only FRED’s single published daily value is used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Treasury spread 10Y-3M by Dec 31, 2026
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Dec 31, 2026

If the FRED T10Y3M series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above 0.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Intraday moves do not count; only FRED’s single published daily value is used.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the FRED T10Y3M series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above 0.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Intr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread be above 0.75% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

51¢

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Treasury spread 10Y-3M by Dec 31, 2026

Treasury spread 10Y-3M by Dec 31, 2026

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Will the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread be above 0.75% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)