Name: How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - April 19?
End: 2026-04-19T00:00:00.000Z

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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - April 19? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $132.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $132.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	37%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	18%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	17%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	14%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	7%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	3%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

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37%

Top Probability

$132.96K

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About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - April 19?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 19, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake H"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $133.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.37)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $85.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $12.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $21.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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