GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

2026 Nobel Physics winner?

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2026 Nobel Physics winner?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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24 markets tracked

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

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Single-Platform Markets(24)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	26%
Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	26%
Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	20%
Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	18%
Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	16%
Will Peter Shor win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	14%
Will Allan MacDonald win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	14%
Will John Pendry win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	10%
Will Yakir Aharonov win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	10%
Will Pablo Jarillo-Herrero win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	10%
Will Michael Berry win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	10%
Will Ewine van Dishoeck win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	10%
Will Simon White win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Sara Seager win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Stéphane Mallat win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Rafi Bistritzer win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Moty Heiblum win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Marc Davis win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Jainendra Jain win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will James Eisenstein win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Ingrid Daubechies win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Federico Capasso win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will David Charbonneau win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%
Will Carlos Frenk win the Nobel Physics?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

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About This Event

In 2026 If X has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Nobel Physics winner?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Yakir Aharonov win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Simon White win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Sara Seager win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Stéphane Mallat win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rafi Bistritzer win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Peter Shor win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Pablo Jarillo-Herrero win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Moty Heiblum win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Marc Davis win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Michael Berry win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will John Pendry win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Jainendra Jain win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will James Eisenstein win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Ingrid Daubechies win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Federico Capasso win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Ewine van Dishoeck win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will David Charbonneau win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Carlos Frenk win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Allan MacDonald win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.1% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

2026 Nobel Physics winner?

In 2026 If X has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$0.00

Markets24

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KALSHI

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHISports

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

If John Preskill has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?

If Alexei Kitaev has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?

If Charles Kane has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?

If Yves Meyer has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?

If Eugene Mele has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/fb_UTI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 Nobel Physics winner?"></iframe>

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Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

2026 Nobel Physics winner?

Markets (24)

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?

Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?

Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?

Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?

Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?

Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?

Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?

Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Nobel Physics winner?

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?

Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?

Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?

Will Charles Kane win the Nobel Physics?

Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?

Will Yves Meyer win the Nobel Physics?

Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?

Will Eugene Mele win the Nobel Physics?

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