GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

Name: Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
End: 2026-05-06T00:02:35.698Z

Total Volume

$29.07K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

Vol

$29.07K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $29.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $29.07K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?	Poly	64%
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?	Poly	39%
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	Poly	38%
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government?	Poly	36%
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?	Poly	17%
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

64%

Top Probability

$29.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will on

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 6, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.

A party will on

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $29.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.2K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $9.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics