Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?

Name: Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?
End: 2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$43.68K

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Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?

Vol

$43.68K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $43.68K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $43.68K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 153 and 157 seats after the 2026 election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 153 and 157 seats after the 2026 election?	Poly	66%
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 158 and 162 seats after the 2026 election?	Poly	10%
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election?	Poly	8%
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 148 and 152 seats after the 2026 election?	Poly	8%
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?	Poly	2%
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 143 and 147 seats after the 2026 election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

66%

Top Probability

$43.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate). The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).

The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $43.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 143 and 147 seats after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 148 and 152 seats after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 153 and 157 seats after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 65.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 158 and 162 seats after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $20.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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