GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Closest Governor's Race?

Name: Closest Governor's Race?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.76K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Closest Governor's Race?

Vol

$15.76K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.76K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.76K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(18)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	15%
Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Alaska have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Texas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	13%
Will Minnesota have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Florida have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Iowa have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Oregon have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Vermont have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Michigan have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Colorado have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Wisconsin have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Kansas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will New Hampshire have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will New Mexico have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Maine have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

15%

Top Probability

$15.76K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Closest Governor's Race?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (60 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $140.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alaska have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $269
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Oregon have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $336
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will New Mexico have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $308
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $297
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Texas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Colorado have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $253
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Kansas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Minnesota have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $274
  DATA: [Yes: 12.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Wisconsin have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Michigan have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $339
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $803
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Iowa have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Maine have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $365
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will New Hampshire have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $539
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Florida have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $335
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $755
  DATA: [Yes: 14.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.3% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Vermont have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $186
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics