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UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-05-10T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$730.57

Events

Markets

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UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Vol

$730.57

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $730.57

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $730.57

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)	Poly	59%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	50%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	50%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	50%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$730.57

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Mateusz Rebecki" if Mateusz Rebecki is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be offici

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mateusz Rebecki" if Mateusz Rebecki is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be offici

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mateusz Rebecki" if Mateusz Rebecki is officially declared the winner.

If the fight i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $731
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $731
  DATA: [Grant Dawson: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [Mateusz Rebecki: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume$730.57

Markets9

9 of 9

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POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw

POLYMARKET

Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grant Dawson defeats Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualificat

POLYMARKET

Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mateusz Rebecki defeats Grant Dawson at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualificat

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will reso

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51¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ffqMBR" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

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UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

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UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Markets (9)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?

Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?

Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?

Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?

Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?

Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?

Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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