Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Total Volume

$17.49K

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Markets

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New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Vol

$17.49K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $17.49K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.49K

100%

Kalshi leads

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2 markets tracked

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?	Kalshi	52%
Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$17.49K

Volume

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About This Event

November 28, 2026 If X wins the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Taipei mayoral election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** November 28, 2026

If X wins the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Su Chiao-hui wins the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 28, 2027): Vol $11.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 28, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Volume$17.49K

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

If Lee Shu-chuan wins the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election w

KALSHI

Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

If Su Chiao-hui wins the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election wi

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51¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/fh6si0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New Taipei mayoral election winner?"></iframe>

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New Taipei mayoral election winner?

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Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Markets (2)

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

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Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

Will Su Chiao-hui win the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election?

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