Margin of victory in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election? | PredictPedia

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Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	32%
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	28%
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 15% and 18%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	13%
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	8%
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	7%
Will the margin of victory for Maria Lazar in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 3% and 100%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for Maria Lazar in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 18% and 100%?	Kalshi	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Margin of victory in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Apr 7, 2026

If the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Chris Taylor minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Chris Taylor if Chris Taylor wins,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election falls between 6% and 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin ty"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 18% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 15% and 18%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $347
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $575
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $307
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Maria Lazar in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 3% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $380
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Maria Lazar in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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13¢

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Margin of victory in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election?

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Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

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Events (1)

Margin of victory in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election?

Markets (9)

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?

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Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Margin of victory in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Chris Taylor in 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election be between 0% and 3%?

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