Name: Film Independent Spirit Awards: Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series Winner
End: 2026-02-15T00:00:00.000Z

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Film Independent Spirit Awards: Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series Winner | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	Poly	100%
Will Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	Poly	44%
Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	Poly	44%
Will Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	Poly	35%
Will Citizen Nation win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	Poly	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Film Independent Spirit Awards: Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series Winner
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 15, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The Film Independent Spirit Awards are presented annually by Film Independent. The ceremony for the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards is scheduled for February 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed show whose title

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Film Independent Spirit Awards are presented annually by Film Independent. The ceremony for the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards is scheduled for February 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film In"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Citizen Nation win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $434
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $164
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $164
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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45¢

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Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Film Independent Spirit Awards: Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series Winner

Markets (5)

Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Citizen Nation win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Citizen Nation win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Film Independent Spirit Awards: Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series Winner

Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Pee-Wee as Himself win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Citizen Nation win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Will Citizen Nation win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Related News & Context

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