Name: Turnout in 2026 Japanese Snap Election?
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

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Turnout in 2026 Japanese Snap Election? | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?	Poly	0%
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?	Poly	0%
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?	Poly	0%
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?	Poly	0%
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?	Poly	0%
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 58% and 60%?	Poly	0%
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be 60% or higher?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turnout in 2026 Japanese Snap Election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bra

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported val"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $131.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $356.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.37)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $17.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $11.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $22.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $14.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 58% and 60%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $29.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be 60% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $29.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

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Events (1)

Turnout in 2026 Japanese Snap Election?

Markets (7)

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?

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Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Turnout in 2026 Japanese Snap Election?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?

Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?

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