This prediction market asks whether an America Party, founded or backed by Elon Musk, will appear on the ballot in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The market resolves to Yes if the party has at least one candidate officially listed under its name on a state ballot, participates in a formal coalition, or endorses candidates with clear party affiliation before September 1, 2028. The question taps into Musk's growing political activism and his flirtations with third-party movements in American politics. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of X (formerly Twitter), has become an increasingly vocal political figure. In 2024, he endorsed Donald Trump and donated heavily to pro-Trump super PACs. Musk has also hosted town halls and used his platform to amplify conservative and libertarian views. Speculation about him starting a political party has circulated since at least 2022, when he tweeted about the need for a "sensible centrist" party. In 2024, he floated the idea of an "America Party" on social media, though no formal organization has emerged yet. Recent developments have added fuel to the speculation. In early 2025, Musk hired several political operatives with experience in ballot access and third-party campaigns. He also registered a political action committee called "America PAC" in multiple states, though its purpose remains unclear. Political analysts note that Musk has the financial resources to fund a national ballot access effort, which typically costs tens of millions of dollars and requires thousands of signatures per state. However, the logistical and legal hurdles are substantial, especially for a new party. The interest in this market reflects broader curiosity about the future of American third parties. With declining trust in both major parties and high dissatisfaction among voters, some see an opening for a new political force. Musk's celebrity, wealth, and media reach make him one of the few individuals who could plausibly launch a viable third-party bid. The market also captures attention because of Musk's unpredictable behavior and his history of making bold claims that sometimes materialize.

Historical Context

Third parties in the United States have a long history of struggling to gain traction. The last third-party candidate to win any electoral votes was George Wallace in 1968, who won 46 electoral votes for the American Independent Party. Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote in 1992 but no electoral votes. The Green Party's Ralph Nader won 2.7% in 2000, and Libertarian Gary Johnson won 3.3% in 2016. No third-party candidate has won a presidential election since the Republican Party replaced the Whigs in the 1850s. Ballot access laws vary widely by state and are often designed to protect the two-party system. In 2024, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spent over $15 million and collected more than 300,000 signatures to get on ballots in all 50 states. Some states require as few as 1,000 signatures (e.g., Tennessee) while others require over 100,000 (e.g., California). Deadlines also vary, with some states requiring petitions up to a year before the election. The Supreme Court has upheld most state ballot access laws, ruling in cases like Anderson v. Celebrezze (1983) that states have a legitimate interest in regulating elections. Recent years have seen increased interest in third-party options. In 2020, the Libertarian Party and Green Party both achieved ballot access in over 30 states. In 2024, No Labels attempted to field a centrist ticket but failed due to candidate withdrawal and logistical hurdles. The America Party concept has been floated before: in 2021, a group called the America Party filed paperwork in several states but never fielded candidates. Musk's involvement would be unprecedented in terms of funding and media attention.

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