Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

Total Volume

$2.02K

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Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.02K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.02K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?	Kalshi	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$2.02K

Volume

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About This Event

Before Sep 1, 2028 If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties'

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Sep 1, 2028

If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties'

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $630.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2028): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

20¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/fvau4a" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?"></iframe>

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Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

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Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)