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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. A
Prediction markets currently assign a 73% probability that incumbent State Senator Matt Klein will secure the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. This price, translating to a roughly 3-in-4 chance, indicates the market views Klein as the clear frontrunner. However, with over 200 days until the primary and only $4,000 in total trading volume, this reflects moderate confidence in a still-developing race. The "Other" category, encompassing any alternative nominee, is priced at approximately 27%.
The primary factor is Klein's established position and early entry. As a sitting state senator representing a portion of the district, he possesses a significant incumbency advantage in name recognition, a donor network, and political relationships. His official campaign launch in early 2025 provided a clear signal of intent, allowing him to consolidate early support. Furthermore, the district's political lean, a Democratic-leaning suburban seat currently held by Democrat Angie Craig, favors a candidate with Klein's mainstream Democratic profile, making him the logical establishment choice.
The current odds are vulnerable to two main catalysts. First, the potential entry of a high-profile challenger could rapidly reshape the race. A well-known local elected official or a candidate with a strong grassroots or progressive backing could split the vote and undermine Klein's frontrunner status. Second, the extremely thin market liquidity means prices are not yet robust. A surge in trading volume from political insiders or based on new polling data could cause significant price volatility. Key dates to watch include candidate filing deadlines in mid-2026 and the release of any early polling or major endorsements.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi limits arbitrage opportunities and suggests that broader speculative interest in this specific primary remains low. This exclusivity, combined with the low volume, means the 73% price should be interpreted as a preliminary snapshot rather than a deeply liquid consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner prediction market focuses on determining which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination to run for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. This primary, scheduled for August 11, 2026, is a critical internal party contest that will select the standard-bearer to compete in the general election for a district that has become a national political battleground. The market resolves based on official Democratic Party sources, with a fallback to 'Other' if no nominee is declared by November 3, 2026. Minnesota's 2nd District, covering suburbs south of the Twin Cities and exurban areas, has experienced significant political volatility in recent cycles, shifting from a Republican stronghold to a highly competitive swing district. This primary is drawing early attention because the seat is currently held by a vulnerable Republican, making the Democratic nominee pivotal to the party's national strategy to regain control of the House. Political observers are interested in this market as an early indicator of candidate strength, fundraising viability, and the ideological direction of the Democratic Party in a crucial Midwestern swing district.
Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District has undergone a dramatic political transformation over the past two decades. For decades, it was represented by Republican moderate Jim Ramstad from 1991 to 2009, who often won by large margins. The district began to shift following demographic changes in the southern Twin Cities suburbs. Democrat Angie Craig first flipped the seat in the 2018 midterm elections, defeating Republican Jason Lewis. Craig's victory was part of a national 'blue wave' that saw Democrats regain control of the House. She was re-elected in 2020 and 2022, but by increasingly narrow margins, reflecting the district's swing nature. In the 2024 election, in a high-turnout presidential year, Republican Tyler Kistner narrowly defeated Craig, reclaiming the seat for the GOP. This back-and-forth control highlights the district's status as a true bellwether. The 2026 primary will occur in a midterm election context, which historically favors the party not holding the presidency, adding another layer of strategic complexity for Democratic candidates. The primary itself has been a contested affair in recent cycles, with Craig facing significant primary challenges in her initial runs, demonstrating active intra-party competition.
The outcome of the MN-02 Democratic primary has significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. As a perennial swing seat, it is a top target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in the 2026 cycle. The nominee's profile, ideology, and electoral strength will directly influence millions of dollars in national party and PAC spending. Furthermore, the primary serves as a proxy battle for the soul of the Democratic Party in the Upper Midwest, testing whether a moderate, bipartisan appeal or a more progressive platform is more effective in winning swing districts. For residents of MN-02, the primary winner will shape the representation and federal priorities for a district encompassing diverse communities from affluent suburbs to agricultural towns, impacting issues like transportation infrastructure, healthcare access, and economic development. The race also matters for Minnesota's political ecosystem, as a strong top-of-the-ticket nominee can boost turnout and support for other DFL candidates in state legislative races.
As of late 2024, the field for the August 2026 Democratic primary is in its earliest formative stage. No major candidates have officially declared their intention to run. Potential candidates, including former Representative Angie Craig, are likely conducting internal polling and donor consultations. The Minnesota DFL party is beginning its candidate recruitment process for the 2026 cycle. The political environment is being shaped by the aftermath of the 2024 elections and the start of the new congressional session under Representative Kistner. Key developments to watch in the coming months will be fundraising quarter reports from potential challengers and any official announcements of exploratory committees.
The Democratic primary for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This is the date when registered Democrats in the district will vote to select their party's nominee for the November general election.
The current U.S. Representative for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District is Republican Tyler Kistner. He was elected in November 2024, defeating the Democratic incumbent, Angie Craig. His term began in January 2025.
As of late 2024, former Representative Angie Craig has not made a public announcement regarding a potential 2026 campaign. Political analysts consider her a likely potential candidate given her name recognition, fundraising network, and the narrow margin of her 2024 loss.
Minnesota's 2nd District includes all of Scott, Le Sueur, Goodhue, and Wabasha counties, along with southern parts of Dakota and Washington counties, and a small portion of southern Rice County. It encompasses suburbs south of Minneapolis and St. Paul like Apple Valley, Rosemount, and Shakopee.
The market resolves to the candidate officially declared the nominee by the Democratic Party. The resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic sources, including democrats.org. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 73% |
| Poly | 22% |
| Poly | 14% |
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