Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

Name: Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$266.02K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

Vol

$266.02K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $266.02K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $266.02K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Poly	53%
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	Poly	51%
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	Poly	35%
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$266.02K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.

“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under it"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $263.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $163.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $129.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $83.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $36.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $15.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics