$250.89
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$250.89
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed a
Prediction markets currently give Democrats a strong advantage in the 2026 race for Ohio's 13th Congressional District. The market implies a roughly 4 in 5 chance that a Democratic candidate will win the seat. This shows a high level of confidence among traders about the district's political direction two years before the election.
Two main factors shape this prediction. First, the district's recent voting history is important. Ohio's 13th district, which includes parts of Akron and suburban areas east of Cleveland, has been represented by Democrat Emilia Sykes since 2022. She won re-election in 2024 by a comfortable margin. The district was drawn to be politically competitive, but Democratic candidates have consistently won here since its creation.
Second, the market is likely accounting for the power of incumbency. If Representative Sykes runs for re-election in 2026, she would typically be considered the strong favorite. Incumbent members of Congress have significant advantages in fundraising and name recognition. Without a major shift in the political environment or an unexpected retirement, the status quo appears stable to traders.
The main event is Election Day on November 4, 2026. However, two earlier political events could change these odds. The first is the candidate filing deadline in early 2026. If a popular local Republican official or a well-funded challenger decides to run, the race could become more competitive. The second is the national political climate throughout 2026. A major wave election favoring either party, often driven by presidential approval ratings or the economy, could reshape the race in this swing district.
Prediction markets have a solid record in forecasting congressional elections, especially when an incumbent is running in a district with a clear recent trend. Their accuracy generally improves as the election gets closer. The main limitation here is time. This forecast is for an event over two years away, which is a very long horizon in politics. Many unpredictable events can happen between now and November 2026. While the current odds reflect the available information, they should be seen as a snapshot of present expectations, not a guaranteed outcome.
Prediction markets currently price a Democratic victory in Ohio's 13th Congressional District at 79%. This high probability indicates traders view the seat as likely to remain under Democratic control. However, the market shows extremely thin liquidity, with zero dollar volume across two related contracts. This lack of trading activity means the 79% price is not backed by significant capital and could be highly volatile if new information emerges.
The district's recent electoral history is the primary driver of this pricing. Democrat Emilia Sykes has held the seat since the district was reconstituted for the 2022 election, winning both her 2022 and 2024 races by comfortable margins. In 2024, she defeated Republican candidate Kevin Coughlin by approximately 10 percentage points. The district, covering parts of Summit and Portage counties including Akron, has trended Democratic in federal elections over the past decade. This established voting pattern, absent a major political realignment, gives the incumbent party a strong advantage.
The 2026 election is over 240 days away, leaving ample time for the political environment to shift. A key unknown is whether Representative Sykes will seek re-election. An open seat contest, without the power of incumbency, would make the race far more competitive and likely cause the market probability to drop significantly. National political trends will also be critical. As a midterm election, 2026 will be a referendum on the sitting president's party. If President Harris faces strong headwinds, it could negatively impact down-ballot Democrats in swing districts like OH-13. The eventual quality and funding of the Republican nominee will be another major catalyst, with strong recruitment potentially moving the odds.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Ohio's 13th congressional district. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate in the November 4, 2026, midterm election. Ohio's 13th district is a competitive seat in Northeast Ohio that includes parts of Summit, Portage, and Stark counties, covering suburbs of Akron and Canton. The district's political balance has shifted in recent cycles, making it a national bellwether for suburban voter sentiment. The 2026 race will be closely watched as a test of both national political trends and local candidate strength in a state that remains critical to presidential and congressional control. Interest in this market stems from the district's status as a genuine swing seat, its history of close elections, and its potential to influence the balance of power in a narrowly divided House of Representatives.
Ohio's 13th congressional district has existed in various forms since 1813, but its current configuration dates from the 2022 redistricting cycle. Following the 2020 census, Ohio lost one congressional seat, triggering a contentious redistricting process. The Ohio Redistricting Commission, controlled by Republicans, drew new maps that were repeatedly rejected by the Ohio Supreme Court for violating anti-gerrymandering provisions in the state constitution. A federal court eventually imposed the map used for the 2022 election, which created a more competitive 13th district. From 2013 to 2022, the district was represented by Republican Tim Ryan, who held the seat for ten years before running for U.S. Senate. Ryan won the district even during Democratic waves, such as in 2018, but his moderate profile became harder to maintain as the district's partisan composition shifted. The 2022 election marked a true partisan flip when Democrat Emilia Sykes won the newly drawn district, reflecting increased Democratic performance in suburban areas around Akron.
The outcome of the OH-13 race has implications for national politics. As a genuine swing district in a perennial battleground state, its results are analyzed for trends in suburban voting behavior, which has decided recent presidential and congressional elections. A Democratic hold would suggest resilience in the Midwest's suburban corridors, while a Republican pickup could indicate a reversion to prior voting patterns or a successful GOP outreach strategy. Control of the U.S. House of Representatives often hinges on a handful of competitive seats like OH-13. The party that wins this district could gain or lose a critical vote needed to pass legislation, elect a Speaker, or conduct investigations. For Ohio politics, the race tests whether Democratic gains in the state's metropolitan suburbs are durable or a temporary reaction to specific national events. The campaign will also influence down-ballot races for state legislature and county offices, affecting policy on issues like education and infrastructure in Northeast Ohio.
As of early 2025, Representative Emilia Sykes is the incumbent Democrat preparing to defend her seat. She has begun fundraising for the 2026 cycle and has voted consistently with the Democratic caucus on major legislation. The Republican field is not yet formalized, with potential candidates assessing the political climate. The Ohio Republican Party is expected to target this seat aggressively as part of its strategy to maintain or expand a narrow House majority. National political action committees from both parties are monitoring the district for early investment opportunities. The political environment will be shaped by the 2024 presidential election results and any subsequent shifts in voter sentiment in Ohio.
Ohio's 13th district is in Northeast Ohio. It includes most of Summit County, including Akron and its suburbs, plus parts of Portage and Stark counties, encompassing communities like Hudson, Stow, and parts of Canton.
Democrat Emilia Sykes has represented Ohio's 13th congressional district since January 2023. She was elected in November 2022, defeating Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert.
Yes, OH-13 is widely rated as a competitive swing district. It voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and elected a Democrat in 2022, but by a margin of only about 5 points, making it a target for both parties.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2026. This is part of the nationwide midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2026 OH-13 House election by authoritative resolution sources, such as major media networks or the Ohio Secretary of State's certification.
The market resolves based on the winning candidate's identifiable party affiliation. If a candidate wins without a major party affiliation, the market would resolve to that specific party designation or as 'Other' according to the market's specific rules.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 80% |
 | Poly | 16% |
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