Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a Kalshi market on the fourth quarter of a women's professional basketball game between Golden State and Atlanta, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to Yes if the named team scores the most points in that quarter of regulation, and that overtime is excluded [1]. Only points scored during the fourth quarter count [1]. If both teams score the same number of points in the quarter, "all team strikes resolve to No and the 'Tie' strike resolves to Yes" [1].

Postponement is handled separately. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes "after the rescheduled game has finished, within 2 days" [1]. If the game is not played or is rescheduled further than 2 days out, the rules say all markets resolve to a fair price [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved data includes three markets from this one event, and all three are included in the sample. The prices come from an observation time of 2026-10-23T00:00:06Z, while the source was retrieved at 2026-10-23T02:00:57Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier snapshot, not live conditions now.

At that observation, the Yes prices were 0.52 for Atlanta winning the fourth quarter, 0.39 for Golden State, and 0.15 for a tie [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Together they sum to 1.06, so they should not be read as a clean set of implied probabilities.

Each contract has its own wording. The Atlanta and Golden State markets are about one team winning the quarter, and the tie market is about the quarter ending level. They should be read individually, not as a single ranking. The provider lists the same close time for all three, 2026-10-26T17:00:00Z, but the excerpt also says the listed end time is "not supplied," and the rules say the market closes after a winner is declared [1]. The listed date therefore does not establish when the event will actually resolve.

What remains uncertain

This evidence covers one platform only, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The saved data does not include volume, trader counts, or any explanation for price levels. The sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, so the three markets should not be treated as the full field of outcomes. The game's actual result, and whether postponement changes the close, cannot be determined from this evidence.

References

1. Kalshi: Golden State vs Atlanta: 4th Quarter Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.